Follow Brian Li (@DecryptoBL) on Twitter.
Follow Brian Li (@bwhli) on Instagram.

SubstratumNode is 18 Weeks Away →

April 10, 2019

Abram Cookson:

No delay, no misses. Estimates are estimates, the more we know the more accurate they become. This has nothing to do with the skill or working hours. If you want me to post a fake deadline I’m not going to do it. We’ve never as a dev team stated anything regarding dates until we began in January offering show and tells. Everyone is an expert predicting when things can be done until they have to do it themselves. No over promises, we are just showing the data every week and will continue to do so. Some weeks we will have little movement, other weeks we will see massive increase in completed work. If you look at the past 3 weeks (16, 13, 18). It will fluctuate.

According to Substratum’s most recent “Show & Tell”, SubstratumNode’s V1 release is still 18 weeks away. Considering last week’s estimate was 13 weeks, it appears that Substratum’s estimations, along with everything else about the project, should be taken with a grain of salt.

Substratum CIO Abram Cookson’s response to the new 18 week estimate is comical. Despite CEO Justin Tabb’s continuous V1 release date shilling since December 2017, Cookson claims the Substratum dev team has never “stated anything regarding dates” until very recently. This statement is all you need to make a judgement on the quality of the Substratum executive team. Instead of admitting that Justin Tabb is a spokesperson for the entire company, including the “dev team”, Cookson downplays the s***show that is Substratum, throws the Justin Tabb under the bus, and tells a white lie to remind the brainwashed Substratum community that everything is okay.

Is everything really okay?

Substratum has 4,399 ETH left in the bank. Based on today’s ETH prices, that’s enough money for 6-8 months of operation. With the current estimate of 18 weeks (4.5 months), Substratum would theoretically have 2-4 months to completely turn the company’s financial situation around. Gambling on the success of SubstratumNode is extremely risky for three reasons.

  1. The network’s native payment token, SUB, sees ~$20,000 in daily trading volume on small exchanges like COSS and HitBTC. Substratum won’t be able to do anything with its huge stash of SUB unless the token magically gets listed on large exchanges and captures the attention of market makers and traders within weeks after the release of V1.
  2. SubstratumNode may have a use case, but essentially no one knows about it. Substratum’s target markets include China, Russia, and other heavily censored parts of the world. How are those people going to find out about SubstratumNode? How are those people going to purchase SUB to pay for usage of SubstratumNode? No usage, no revenue.
  3. Even if the idea catches on, it’ll take time to ramp up the network. Time is something Substratum as a company doesn’t have much of. Things would be very different if Substratum had $5 million sitting in USD. Unfortunately, the executive team gambled away most of the company’s initial funding by holding it in the world’s most volatile asset class. How’s that for proper financial management?

Nah, everything’s not okay.


Questions?

Find me on Twitter, or send me an email.